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Paradox of demographic dividend and unemployment

As the global population hit the eight-billion mark, it has set off alarm bells for India.

unemployment

Sentinel Digital DeskBy : Sentinel Digital Desk

  |  16 Nov 2022 3:35 AM GMT

As the global population hit the eight-billion mark, it has set off alarm bells for India. The World Population Prospects 2022 released by the United Nations show that India is poised to overtake China as the most populous county by 2023. Rising youth unemployment in sharp contrast to the country's demographic dividend presents a paradoxical situation. For Assam with a numerically small population of indigenous communities, unabated illegal migration has created a double whammy of population explosion and demographic change. A comprehensive population policy for the country addressing state-specific issues, therefore, is critical for reaping the demographic dividend. The increase of the world population by one billion from the 7-billion mark in 2011 is projected to hit the 8.5-billion mark by 2030 and the 9-billion mark by 2037. This indicates that the world population growth rate is slowing down and is projected to take 15 years to add another one billion population while it took 12 years from 2011 to add one billion population. The "World Population Prospects 2022: Summary of Results" published by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division explains that 'following a drop in mortality, population growth continues so long as fertility remains at high levels. When fertility begins to fall, the annual rate of growth starts to drop." In 2021, the average fertility of the world's population stood at 2.3 births per woman over a lifetime, having fallen from about 5 births per woman in 1950. Global fertility is projected to decline further to 2.1 births per woman by 2050. Official data show that the total fertility rate, i.e. the average number of children per woman, has declined from 2.2 to 2 at the national level in India between National Family Health Survey (NFHS)-round 4 and NFHS-5. Overall Contraceptive Prevalence Rate in the country has increased substantially from 54% to 67% and the use of modern methods of contraceptives has also increased in almost all States and Union territories. Besides, unmet needs of family Planning have witnessed a significant decline from 13 per cent to 9 per cent and the unmet need for spacing, which remained a major issue in India in the past has come down to less than four per cent which demonstrates the outcomes of population control measures. NFHS-5 results show that the total unmet need is still 11% and the unmet need for spacing in Assam is 4.1, higher than the national average which calls for focused attention by the State government in popularizing family planning methods. The UN report explains that because of the momentum of growth embedded in current age structures, reductions in fertility over the next several years will have only a limited effect on the growth of the world population between now and 2050. However, a fertility decline in the near term can have important consequences for growth in the last decades of the century as the impact of fertility decline on population size cumulates from one generation to the next, it states, which underscores the importance of population control measures. Rather than a coercive population policy that cannot be enforced or has little impact, building awareness of the smaller size of families for a better life through an improvement in access to quality education is the key. The UN prescription for countries where a decline in fertility is creating an opportunity for a demographic dividend is for investment in human capital by ensuring access to healthcare and quality education at all ages and opportunities for productive employment. The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) data show that the unemployment rate in the country rose to 7.8% in October reversing the decline to 6.4% in September, the lowest in the last four years. The CMIE data bring to light that about 2.2 million quit the labour markets, the labour force shrunk from 432 million in September to 429.8 million and employment fell from 404.2 million in September to 396.4 million in October 2022. The drop in employment mainly in rural areas, CMIE has indicated that fresh sowing in the Rabi season can lead to a surge in employment during winter and a decline in the unemployment rate. However, the challenge for the country's development planners is to create more employment avenues so that this uncertainty in employment is reduced and demographic dividend is gleaned for faster growth of the economy. According to Economic Survey Report 2018-19, a sharp slowdown in population growth is expected in the next two decades while some states will transition to ageing societies by the 2030s. The survey indicates that India's demographic dividend will peak around 2041, when the share of working-age, i.e. 20-59 years, the population is expected to hit 59 per cent. This means that the window of demographic dividend is going to be kept open for a very short period and, therefore, job creation should match the population projections. For Assam, reaping a democratic dividend cannot be achieved without curbing illegal migration.

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